Global real GDP growth

Global real GDP growth:
IMF raises its forecasts of global growth to 4.1% for 2008 after a better than expected H1 (4.5% in H1, down from 5% in 2007) but lowers it to 3.9% for 2009 as U.S. EU and Japan will have weaker growth in the second half. Growth in developing economies expected to fall to 7% in 2008/09 from 8% in 2007. U.S. growth estimated at 1.3%, Eurozone: previous 2008 estimate of 1.4% revised up to 1.7% upon better than expected Q1 data especially in Germany (+1.5% q/q.) 2009 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.2% (2007 GDP was 2.6%); Japan to grow at 1.5% in 2008; China to grow at 10%
Fitch: pessimistic on outlook for advanced economies despite the fact that GDP growth has held up so far. Revised growth outlook lower, and revised up inflation, unemployment and interest rate estimates. US recession still likely in 2008 as consumer retrenchment takes over from the housing sector as main source of weakness. Expects global growth of 2.6% in 2008 (2.7% in 2009)
OECD: US 0.1% in Q108; 0.0% in Q208. EMU 0.5% in Q108; 0.4% in Q208. Japan 03% in Q108; 0.2% in Q208
ECB: Annual real GDP growth in the Euro area is projected to lie in the range of 1.3% to 2.1% in 2008, and to be between 1.3% and 2.3% in 2009.
Citi: global GDP growth based on PPP weights 3% in 2008 - US to grow 1.3% in 2008. Euro to grow at 1.5%. Emerging markets to grow 6.3%
Mussa: substantial global slowdown, led by a possible recession in the US and trouble in China, is clearly a risk. More likely outcome for 08 is slower global growth, around 4%
MCM Global Investment Management: global growth at 3.6%
Greenspan: "some form" of global recession "is inevitable at some point"
Goldman (not available online): Outside the US, financial conditions have tightened significantly over the last six months. We see downside risk to our 3.7% projection for global growth in 2008. We worry that some assets, such as Chinese stocks, embed too optimistic global growth expectations. Downward adjustment of global growth expectations is a key driver of recent equity market weakness